Zambia’s economy is expected to feel indirect pressure from weakening regional demand after South Africa recorded its sharpest manufacturing slowdown of the year in November. A monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index survey issued in Johannesburg showed the seasonally adjusted PMI, sponsored by Absa Bank, falling to 42.0 in November from 49.2 in October. A reading below 50 signals a contraction, highlighting the fragility of South Africa’s manufacturing sector as declines in production and demand outweighed modest gains in employment and easing cost pressures.
The slump comes at a time when export sales from Africa’s most industrialised economy have been sluggish since late 2024, while domestic demand has weakened again after a short recovery in the third quarter. Although a sub-index tracking expected business conditions over the next six months rose slightly to 50.8, indicating cautious optimism, it remains below long term averages, reflecting overall uncertainty in South Africa’s economic outlook.
South Africa’s slowdown is particularly important for Zambia because it remains the country’s largest source of imports. In October 2025, South Africa accounted for 23.3 percent of Zambia’s total import bill, with key products including diesel-engine vehicles for the transport of goods up to 5 tonnes, which made up 4.7 percent of Zambia’s import bill from that country. A drop in South African manufacturing output could reduce the availability of such industrial goods, potentially raising costs for Zambian businesses that rely on South African supply chains for transport equipment, machinery and consumer goods.
Zambia’s trade statistics show that although the country imports heavily from other markets such as China, which supplied 19.3 percent of total imports in October, the United Arab Emirates at 7.9 percent, India at 4.4 percent and Japan at 4.1 percent, South Africa’s proximity and strong transport linkages make it the most influential on Zambia’s short-term economic conditions. A prolonged slowdown in South Africa could lead to supply delays, higher import prices and constrained access to key inputs used across Zambian industries.
Economists say any weakness in South African demand may also affect Zambia’s exporters, particularly in agriculture and manufactured goods, as reduced purchasing power limits opportunities for Zambian firms targeting the southern market. However, if South Africa’s expected business conditions improve in early 2026, Zambia could benefit from more stable supply flows and improved regional trade dynamics. For now, the region’s economic interdependence suggests that Zambia will closely monitor developments in South Africa’s industrial sector as it remains a major determinant of pricing, availability and movement of imported goods into the domestic market.
